Monday 05/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 05/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Marc Lawrence

MLB | May 25
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Detroit Tigers -130

Play On: Detroit w/Verlander vs Meche
Note: The Tigers travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals in the opener of this three-game series when they send Justin Verlander to the hill against Gil Meche in a matchup of two pitchers going in opposite directions. Verlander is 5-1 in his last six team starts with 12 walks and 57 strikeouts while Meche has dropped 5 of his last 6 team starts. With Verlander in commanding form and 8-3 with a 2.43 ERA in his career team starts in this series, look for the Tigers to win the opener here this afternoon.
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Cajun Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers +110

Coors Field will be the site of todays game one of the three-game set between the host Colorado Rockies and the visiting LA Dodgers. The Dodgers open a seven-game road trip after losing two of three against the Angels over the weekend. The stop in Colorado should help them get back to their winning ways; the Dodgers are 5-1 W/L versus the Rockies their last six this season and LA has been dominate when facing division opponents posting a record of 20-8 W/L against Western Division foes in 2009. To say they are the best in the west would be an understatement because no other team in the west has a record above .500 in division play and LA sets the pace at 12 games over the Mendoza Line. LA will send Eric Stults to the bump with his record of 4-1 and ERA of 3.82 ERA. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last three outings. He missed a chance to win his third start in a row May 15 allowing three runs over five innings of work in a 6 to 4 win at Florida. Stults is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against the Rockies, including three starts. The Rockies will send Jorge De La Rosa to the hill with his 0-4 record and ERA of 4.27; he is making his ninth start of the year seeking his first win since Sept. 25. His last outing was his worst as he allowed a season-high seven runs over a season-low 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in a 12 to 4 loss at Atlanta. We will back the Dodgers here as they get an easy win over the Rockies on Monday afternoon at Coors Field in the Mile High City.

Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 7 Colorado Rockies 4
 
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Craig Trapp

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Records

Tampa Bay Rays 23-23, 12-13 away (Price 0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Cleveland Indians 17-28, 7-11 home (Carmona 2-4, 5.74 ERA)

Betting Trends

-Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.

-Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.

-Indians are 1-4 in Carmonas last 5 home starts.

-Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Price was a savior for this team at the end of last season for TB and well into the playoffs. Today he will try and end a losing streak of 13 games in CLEVELAND. TB won three of four early this year at home and now try and this losing streak going back to SEPT 2005. TB bats have been hot lately and CLE has really struggled with the pitching staff. Today pitching for CLE is Carmona who has been very disappointing. He has allowed 4 earned runs the last two games in 6 innings in both starts. Carmona is 2-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay in four appearances, including three starts. Price will be lights out as he has nasty stuff and since CLE has not seen him it will make it even tougher to catch up with. TB will get into the very poor CLE bullpen and score often. SCORE TB 8 - CLE 1
 
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Jimmy The Moose

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Over

Boston has played the over in their last 4 games vs. a team from the AL Central Division. The over is 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. Penny's ERA on the season is 6.07 and the over os 5-2-1 in his 8 starts this year. The over is 9-4 in the Twins last 13 home games. In their last 11 games as a home favorite the over is 8-3. Minnesota has played over the total in 2 of Liriano's last 3 starts. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 7.80. Both meetings this season played the over and this one will too.
 
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Nelly

Florida + over Philadelphia

The Phillies are just 8-12 at home this season and there could be a letdown following the big series against New York. The road team is actually 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams and Jamie Moyer has struggled considerably this season. Moyer owns a 7.62 ERA this season while allowing four or more runs in six of his eight starts. Moyer has already allowed 12 home runs this season and he has been a worse pitcher at home so far this year and the Phillies are 0-3 in his last three starts while he has posted a 12.08 ERA. The Philadelphia bullpen has also been a serious cause for concern as Brad Lidge has been ineffective and the unit has been heavily worked with two extra-inning games last week. Florida pulled out a big win on Sunday and the Marlins have been a much better team away from home this year. Chris Volstad has very strong numbers including a 2.96 ERA on the road this season and a season WHIP of just 1.12. Volstad allowed just two earned runs over seven innings earlier this season against Philadelphia and this is great value on the Marlins as an underdog in a very favorable pitching match-up.
 
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Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels

Normally I stay away from favorites over 150.However tonight the Angels have several positive indicators in place.For technical purposes lets take a look at a solid system thats 12-2 and plays on LA.What we want to do is play on home favorites that scored 10 or more runs in a road dog win vs an opponent off a home loss.We can tighten it up to 5-0 if that road dog win was at +140 or higher.The average win score is 7-4 in these games.So we can see these home team carry that big dog win into there next game.The Angles are also sending E.Santana to the mound and he is a dominant home pitcher in his career.The Angels have won both times this year as a home favorite of -150 to -175.For Chicago its Lefty J.Danks,and he has been awful of late with a 6.13 era over his last 3 starts and has a 5.91 road era this year.The Whitesox are 7-14 on the road this year including 1-5 when the total is 8 to 8.5.
 
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -130

Since a hot start, the Royals are struggling, having lost 11 of 15. The Tigers are rolling, having won 7 of 9. I'll back the team playing better baseball with the better starting pitcher on the hill today. Verlander has been sensational over his last 3 starts, going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.27. Meche has been roughed up over his last 3, going 0-2 with an ERA of 6.19, and he is yet to win at home this season in 4 tries. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The Royals are 1-5 in Meche's last 6 starts and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Tigers are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Kansas City and 8-3 in Verlander's last 11 starts vs. the Royals. Take the Tigers.
 
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Red Dog Sports

Houston/Cincinnati under the total

Hurang and Wandy Rodriguez have combined for 5 overs and 12 unders this year. Wandy's ERA is 1.83 in his last 3 starts and gone undewr 11-4 his last 15 on grass. Hurang's ERA is 3.19 in his last 3 and the Astros have gone under in 7 of the last 8 Monday games. Look for an under on Monday.
 
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John Ryan

Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Phillies as the play host to the Marlins slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-20 making 52.7 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. Her eis a second system that has gone 34-8 making 24 units since 2003. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting NL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Florida is just 2-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line versus a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Plus, the Philly bullpen with the exception of closer Lidge is pitching better and better. Lidge will work his way out of his pitching slump over time, but he is just one pitcher in a very strong group. Take the Phils.
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

LA Lakers at DENVER

We are on an 8-2 comp play run the last 10 days.

We will go to the well once again with the UNDER in the Lakers-Nuggets series.

ALL 3 games in this series have stayed LOW, and so have 9 of the last 10 games played between the teams.

The Lakers have now played 8 straight UNDERS in the Western Conference Finals, and they have also stayed LOW in 23 of their last 32 games overall.

As for the Nuggets, 7 of their last 10 postseason games have held UNDER the posted price.

Game Three did not come close to eclipsing the established total, and we do not feel that this game will come close to going OVER the total either.

Play on the UNDER.

5♦ UNDER
 
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Matt Rivers

For Monday take the Rays in Cleveland.

I do not think that David Price will throw a lights out 9 inning shutout today but the young lefty is a total future Superstar, as we saw in the playoffs last season, and the way each of these teams are playing how can you not back the superior Rays in the spot, even on the road!?!?!?

Cleveland is certainly a talented team led by a potentially great player in Grady Sizemore but right now the Indians are not a very good ballclub and have been losing too much this season to beat the surging boys from Tampa Bay at around a 50% clip which this number seems to suggest.

Fausto Carmona has that solid sinker and was unreal two seasons ago but the righty has not been the same guy and is a hurler that can be alright but he can also be fairly sketchy.

Tampa just had that quality series in Florida and seems to be looking like the squad from last season. Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Pena and the Rays are extremely scary to deal with for opposing hurlers and in Price' first big league start of the season I will gladly back today's visitors at this near-pick number.
 
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Jeff Benton

San Diego at ARIZONA -125

For Monday’s freebie, we’ll head to Arizona and back the Diamondbacks in an afternoon Memorial Day contest against the Padres.

San Diego whipped the Cubs 7-2 on Sunday to cap a perfect nine-game homestand. So why go against a team that’s riding the longest win streak in baseball? Because they’re back on the road tonight, and San Diego has been pathetic as a visitor in 2009. We’re talking six wins in 23 road games, including an ongoing 11-game road losing skid. And they haven’t even been competitive during this road slide, with eight of those 11 defeats coming by more than a run.

As for the DBacks, no doubt it has been a very disappointing season in the desert. But they have been playing much better ball lately, winning six of their last eight games, and Sunday’s 6-2 loss at Oakland snapped a four-game winning streak. Also, Chase Field has been a house of horrors for San Diego in recent years, as it has lost 60 of its last 88 meetings with the DBacks in Arizona. That includes three straight losses to end last year’s season series, with Arizona pumping out 19 runs in those three contests.

Finally, even though his record (2-6) doesn’t show it, Arizona southpaw Doug Davis has been solid this year, posting a 3.95 ERA overall and a 3.38 ERA in four home games. And going back to his days with the Brewers, Davis has owned the Padres, going 8-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts, with San Diego going 1-9 the last 10 times they’ve seen the southpaw. Davis has delivered seven straight quality starts against the Padres, posting a 2.61 ERA along the way.

Throw in the fact that the Padres can’t hit lefties (.218 team average), and I’m all over the home team in this one as Arizona puts an end to San Diego’s overall winning streak … and extends the Friars’ losing skid.

4♦ ARIZONA
 
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Karl Garrett

Pittsburgh +155 at CUBS

Sunday comp play winner on Pittsburgh-White Sox UNDER the posted total!

G-Man now on a 5-1 comp play run the last 6 days.

For Monday in baseball, let's go with the underdog Pirates as they visit the Chicago Cubs.

Pittsburgh rallied for the 4-3 win yesterday on the south side of Chicago, as the Bucs have been a winner in 6 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, the Cubs got blasted yesterday at San Diego, as Chicago comes back home riding a 7-game losing streak.

The Cubs have not been able to get any kind of offense going, and with Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm allowing just 1 earned run over his last 13 innings, there is a strong chance the Cubs offensive shortage will continue tonight.

Ryan Dempster will try and stop the bleeding for Sweet Lou's team, but with losses in 2 of his last 3 trips to the hill, laying this kind of money on the righty is a losing propostion.

Play on the Pirates this Memorial Day.

2♦ PITTSBURGH
 
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Bobby Maxwell

Florida at PHILADELPHIA -125

We delivered a FREE winner from the diamond on Sunday with the Rangers as they took care of the Astros and today we've got another comp winner for you, this time with the Phillies as they host the Marlins.

Yes, we're laying the chalk with veteran hurler Jamie Moyer (3-4, 7.62 ERA) on the mound for the Phillies tonight. Why? Because he's owned the Marlins in his career, leading the Phillies to 12 wins in his last 13 outings against Florida.

Philadelphia had a good trip to New York, winning two of three against the Yankees, including Sunday's extra-inning 4-3 win. The Phils just completed a 10-game road trip with an 8-2 mark and the one loss they had in New York was when the Yankees scored three in the ninth to win. So this team is playing some great baseball.

Moyer has not looked good lately, but if there's one thing you can count on is him dominating the Marlins. He's faced them once already this season and allowed just one run on seven hits in six innings of a 13-2 win. Since 2007, he's allowed two runs or less in eight of his 10 starts against them and has always gone at least five innings against them.

Christopher Volstad (3-3, 3.64 ERA) goes for the Marlins and he's allowed four runs in each of his last two starts and three of his last four. Florida has lost three of his last four outings and the only reason they won his Wednesday start was thanks to the offense catching fire in an 8-6 win over the D'Backs.

Philadelphia is playing well and Moyer loves facing the Marlins. Play the Phils in this one.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA
 

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Tony Weston
Tony Weston MONDAY'S PLAYS 25 Dime Lakers
10 Dime Lakers-Nuggets Under




tony will not have the write up till later today. i will be gone for the rest of today, if going fishing and if i get back early i will post his write up.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS:103631605

Thanks Bud, have a good Memorial Day!!! and catch a few walleye for me
too! :lol:
 
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Big Al Mcmordie Bonus Play

At 2:10pm our member selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins 'over' the total. The short set of inter-league games is over and the Twins probably aren't too happy about it. Last season the Twins had the best inter-league record in baseball at 14-4 and they swept a very good Milwaukee Brewer team in their three inter-league games so far in 2009. But fear not, there's something else the Twins do exceedingly well which is win games at home. Besides the recently completed Milwaukee sweep, Minnesota is 16-9 this season at the Metrodome and it seems to have little problem scoring runs there. In fact, the Twins have scored more runs at home than any other team in the Majors (the Red Sox happen to be second in that category). Adding to the potential for run-scoring fireworks this afternoon is the fact that both starters, Francisco Liriano and Brad Penny have struggled this season, with Penny pitching better of late having just beaten the division-leading Blue Jays, but still with an ERA over six runs. Joe Mauer is pretty much the hottest hitter in baseball. He hit his 10th homer Sunday night and while that number is five short of league leader Carlos Pena, what is truly amazing is that Mauer missed almost a full month of the season due to a back injury coming out of spring training. Four of Liriano's last seven starts have gone over the total as have six of Penny's last nine. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
 
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Charlies Sports Comp

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mlb. san diego @ arizona-130. Everything went right for the San Diego Padres as they swept a nine-game homestand at Petco Park. The only potential problem is it ended.
Seeking 10 straight wins for the first time in a decade, the Padres take to the road, where they haven’t won in nearly a month, and open a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, d'backs win-130.
 
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Tips and Trends

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Lakers: The Lakers have issues, including Trevor Ariza's sore hip and groin and Kobe Bryant's banged-up body. And they got off to a slow start Saturday night. The Lakers know if not for the Nuggets' bad shot selection, they could very well be the ones facing a 2-1 hole. "We've got to come out with more focus, more energy and really just execute a lot better in the defensive end of the floor," said Bryant, who characterized the team mood as "still a little edgy, a little upset." Bryant needed an IV after the game Saturday night and said that was the most exhausted he'd ever been after a playoff game.

The Lakers are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Under is 8-0 in the Lakers' last 8 Conference Finals games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 105


Nuggets (-4.5, O/U 208.5): Chauncey Billups said the Nuggets "shot some bad 3-point shots at bad points of the game, just taking chances, trying to hit the dagger," and vowed that would change for Game 4. "I think we got caught up in the emotion of the moment of a great crowd, a great challenge," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "I think we tried to hit too many home runs rather than just take a single here, a double here and win the game that way. We tried to hit too many bombs. We've got to challenge the Lakers to play defense on every possession. I think we took too many shots where they didn't have to play defense."

The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 109 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
 
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LA LAKERS at DENVER
Play On - Any team (DENVER) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
90-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.4% | 32.8 units )
15-14 this year. ( 51.7% | -0.4 units )


LA LAKERS at DENVER
Play On - Any team vs the money line (DENVER) after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games
75-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.5% | 34.5 units )
16-12 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.5 units )


LA LAKERS at DENVER
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
71-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 32.5 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
 

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